The Santorum Surge, Does It Really Mean Anything?

Now that we've had a few days to think about the Santorum primary surge (those yodeled wins last Tuesday in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado) it's time to consider exactly what it all means. My take . . . not much. I still see Romney pulling out the nomination, bruised but unbeaten, for three primary reasons. Oh, and yes, and I did go there with that double meaning with "primary."

It Doesn't Matter Reason #1) Face it, Santorum has not been splattered by the mud-slinging yet. Yet. While Romney was spending millions exposing Gringrich's baggage and Newt was promising to run a positive campaign as he repeatedly claimed that only a legit birth certificate distinguished Mitt from Obama, Rick Santorum quietly continued to deliver his smiling, I'm-the-electable-and-silly-sweet-conservative message to voters. Well, after Tuesday's success, that is sure to change. Romney will turn his well-funded scorched earth tactic on Santorum, and it won't be pretty. The former Pennsylvanian Senator has plenty of baggage to serve as fuel for the assault. I'm sure Romney will focus overtly on Santorum's historical penchant for ear marks or his sketchy use of Pennsylvania resident tax credits while essentially living in Virginia, but don't be surprised if some of the stranger things in Santorum's past start to enter political dialogue through back channels. Like his equating of homosexuality to bestiality and incest. Or how he blamed liberal politics for sexual abuse in the Catholic Church. And while some may think it touching or simply a product of intense grief, a significant number of 21st century voters are certain to find it a little bizarre that he brought home the corpse of his dead baby for the kids to "cuddle."

It Doesn't Matter Reason #2) Newt is still in the race. Santorum and Gingrich have spent most of the primary season trying to out-conservative the other, speechifying as though only DNA results could disprove each as a Reagan/Thatcher love child. The result: those who are just voting for the conservative label are splitting their vote. Meanwhile, Romney will continue to pull in some conservatives, most moderates, and many who believe he is the most electable in a general election. Advantage, Mitt.


It Doesn't Matter Reason #3) Santorum's lack of money and campaign capability. Plain and simple: Santorum just doesn't have the money to keep up. Oh, I know that like the work of a conscientious hooker, it's not all about the money. If it were, than the Republican candidate wouldn't have a chance for the White House come November. In the last presidential election, Obama outspent John McCain by a nearly 3 to 1 margin and you can pretty much bet the same will be true the next time around. So even Romney can't hope to simply buy his way past the liberal campaign finance machine to score the White House. But you still need a bushel of green to make any credible, long-term run and Santorum just doesn't have the cabbage. In addition, I'm just not impressed by Santorum's ability to campaign. He has the Conservative shtick down, but his debates and interviews are forgettable. For example, when he . . . . see? Gone. And let's face it, his past is filled with as many lost elections as victories.


Oh, It Doesn't Matter Reason #3) Romney didn't campaign in Missouri and only gave a nod to Minnesota. So only Colorado caught him by surprise. I doubt that will happen again.