Santorum Wins in Kansas

And there is much rejoicing in the Obama camp.

Mitt Romney's Super Tuesday and Surreal Wednesday

Mitt Romney pulled out a critical win in yesterday's 10-state "Super Tuesday" primary run, taking first in 6 states and 2nd in 3 more. More importantly, he picked up a massive amount of delegates, now giving him more than double the number of his nearest rival. Yep, it was a big win for Romney . . . unless you ask two particular political factions: Santorum supporters and Obama supporters. On Wednesday both of those groups claimed that Romney actually lost on Tuesday. And while their talking points are different, their intent is the same. Both groups want Rick Santorum to face Barack Obama in the general election.

According to the Santorum Camp, Romney lost Super Tuesday because, well,  he should have crushed Santorum like a sheet of addictive bubble wrap, having outspent him by a margin of 4 to 1(though they shamelessly shine the disparity to something like 10 gazillion to 1). It's a loss because Romney spent all that cabbage and barely won. And Team Santorum makes this claim with such conviction that you almost believe them. But given more than a second's worth of reflection and the logic unravels. By their argument, Obama didn't actually win the presidency because he outspent McCain 3 to 1. The New York Giants aren't really the Super Bowl Champs because Eli Manning threw for more yardage than Tom Brady. Michael Moore doesn't really outweigh Calista Flockhart because he eats more Twinkies by a margin of 4 to 1. In their attempt to excuse the results they miss one undeniable and final point: Mitt Romney won and the convention delegates added to his coffers are the proof.

Interestingly, Obama supporters also claim that Romney lost yesterday. Their reasoning: they really, really want to face Rick Santorum in the general election come November. Pretty please with strawberries and whipped cream on top. Their stated reason is a little less obvious, however. According to the Left, Romney lost because he didn't actually eliminate the competition. He showed "remarkable weakness as a frontrunner" because there are still other Republican hopefuls in race. In the same way Michael Phelps repeatedly shows his remarkable weakness as a swimmer because he wins most of his races by fractions of a second. In the same way Bill Clinton showed remarkable weakness as a presidential candidate having only receive 43% of the popular vote the first time he was elected. The outcomes were close. Santorum, Gringrich and Paul refuse to quite after losing even more ground in the delegate count. So obviously Romney lost.

It's easy to recognize why these to factions are saying what they're saying. They want to sway voters. They want to claim Romney is weak. They want the infinitely unelectable Santorum on the ballot. But sometimes the truth is just the truth. Romney won. Whether because of the money, his message or his humming organization, Romney won. And as he racks up delegates it's becoming clearer by the week that he will eventually be the Republican nominee.

While I'm on the subject of Super Tuesday, I have to say something of Rick Santorum's "victory speech" at the end of the night. First of all, could this guy possible give longer speeches after every friggin' primary and caucus? Good Lord! I felt like I was back in my childhood listening to my mother rattle off incessantly about the wonders of cod liver oil. And second of all, I know his words sound tonally appealing to some, but do they ever listen to what he's actually saying. My favorite speech moment was when he dropped that "rights don't come from the government." Really, Rick? Ever heard of the Constitution?

When Will Santorum and Gringrich Drop Out of the Race?

Last week we heard that Mitt Romney's campaign was over if he lost Michigan. After all, the Great Lakes State is Mitt's "native" land. It's where he was born. Never mind that he hasn't live in MI for 40 years. Forget the fact that he was actually governor of a different initial-M state. Nope, according to tedious talking heads in the media, if Mitt lost the mitten he might as well pull up his political stakes and get back to his life as an ultra-successful business dude.

And Mitt almost lost Michigan. The open primary state was ripe for an upset with Democrats crossing over to vote against the man from Mass . . . I mean, Michigan. By now most informed folk are aware of the Santorum campaign robo-calling Democratic households in Michigan, urging them to vote against Romney because he didn't support the auto industry bailout (interestingly, Santorum's message didn't mention that he was against the bailout as well). And despite Santorum's later claim that it was "Reagan Democrats" who crossed-over to notch his name, we also know through exit polling that the Democrats who voted for Santorum were heavily the voters who considered themselves "very liberal" and "against the tea party." In other words, since Santorum is the darling of the tea party movement, we know the Ds voting for him were note voting out of love . . . unless you mean they were voting out of love for the guy they really, really want Obama to face in November.

But despite it all, Romney won his "native state" in much the same way Reagan won his years before (for the record, that would be Illinois). So now I find myself asking the question I heard an analyst drop during the last news cycle. If Michigan was Romney's "must win" what about Santorum and Gringrich? Where is their "must win." When will they finally drop out of the race.

I've heard the arguments that this contentious primary is good for the Republican brand. That it vets the candidates and the winner will have already suffered so many attacks that any assault Obama attempts will be old news. But I don't buy it. First of all, Obama will not use the same attacks. Where Santorum and Gringrich attack Romney as a moderate liberal, Obama will paint him a Bush conservative. And even more concerning, the Republicans are spending hoards of campaign dollars, lightening their coffers in a drastic way before what is sure to be a Scrooge McDuck level presidential race. Let's face it, Obama outspent McCain by a ton the last time around, and given the way the Left has mastered campaign finance violations, we can expect more of the same in the next campaign. We need to bring this Republican bloodletting to an end!

Yesterday Romney won the non-binding Washington state caucus, so again I ask: what will it take before Santorum and Gingrinch drop out of the race? And how much damage will they do to the chance of beating Obama before that time has come?

The Santorum Surge, Does It Really Mean Anything?

Now that we've had a few days to think about the Santorum primary surge (those yodeled wins last Tuesday in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado) it's time to consider exactly what it all means. My take . . . not much. I still see Romney pulling out the nomination, bruised but unbeaten, for three primary reasons. Oh, and yes, and I did go there with that double meaning with "primary."

It Doesn't Matter Reason #1) Face it, Santorum has not been splattered by the mud-slinging yet. Yet. While Romney was spending millions exposing Gringrich's baggage and Newt was promising to run a positive campaign as he repeatedly claimed that only a legit birth certificate distinguished Mitt from Obama, Rick Santorum quietly continued to deliver his smiling, I'm-the-electable-and-silly-sweet-conservative message to voters. Well, after Tuesday's success, that is sure to change. Romney will turn his well-funded scorched earth tactic on Santorum, and it won't be pretty. The former Pennsylvanian Senator has plenty of baggage to serve as fuel for the assault. I'm sure Romney will focus overtly on Santorum's historical penchant for ear marks or his sketchy use of Pennsylvania resident tax credits while essentially living in Virginia, but don't be surprised if some of the stranger things in Santorum's past start to enter political dialogue through back channels. Like his equating of homosexuality to bestiality and incest. Or how he blamed liberal politics for sexual abuse in the Catholic Church. And while some may think it touching or simply a product of intense grief, a significant number of 21st century voters are certain to find it a little bizarre that he brought home the corpse of his dead baby for the kids to "cuddle."

It Doesn't Matter Reason #2) Newt is still in the race. Santorum and Gingrich have spent most of the primary season trying to out-conservative the other, speechifying as though only DNA results could disprove each as a Reagan/Thatcher love child. The result: those who are just voting for the conservative label are splitting their vote. Meanwhile, Romney will continue to pull in some conservatives, most moderates, and many who believe he is the most electable in a general election. Advantage, Mitt.


It Doesn't Matter Reason #3) Santorum's lack of money and campaign capability. Plain and simple: Santorum just doesn't have the money to keep up. Oh, I know that like the work of a conscientious hooker, it's not all about the money. If it were, than the Republican candidate wouldn't have a chance for the White House come November. In the last presidential election, Obama outspent John McCain by a nearly 3 to 1 margin and you can pretty much bet the same will be true the next time around. So even Romney can't hope to simply buy his way past the liberal campaign finance machine to score the White House. But you still need a bushel of green to make any credible, long-term run and Santorum just doesn't have the cabbage. In addition, I'm just not impressed by Santorum's ability to campaign. He has the Conservative shtick down, but his debates and interviews are forgettable. For example, when he . . . . see? Gone. And let's face it, his past is filled with as many lost elections as victories.


Oh, It Doesn't Matter Reason #3) Romney didn't campaign in Missouri and only gave a nod to Minnesota. So only Colorado caught him by surprise. I doubt that will happen again.